Globally, the majority of countries using inflation targets have done so when inflation was neither low nor stable. Many such countries have changed their target each year, and our empirical estimates support theoretical predictions that annual changes to the target are endogenous to outcomes....

Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...

We propose a stylized exchange rate model based on diversity and weight ofopinion. Our model departs from standard assumptions in that we allow forheterogeneous agents. We show that such a model can explain both the observedvolatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate...