Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The...

Predictive regressions are widely used in empirical economics and finance to investigate the Granger causality test, linear rational expectations hypothesis test, and market efficiency hypothesis. This paper develops a new unified predictability test regardless of the properties of predictors....

In this paper, we are interested in exploring the role of price impact, derived from the order book, in modeling and predicting stock volatility. This is motivated by the microstructure literature that focuses on the mechanics of price formation and its relevance to market quality. Using a...