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False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices

Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22

risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857

Calibration of quantum decision theory, aversion to large losses and predictability of probabilistic choices

Vincent, Sabine; Jukalov, Vjačeslav I.; Kovalenko, Tatyana - 2016

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a … differentiation of the population into two similar sized groups in terms of "over-confident" and "contrarian" decision makers. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615

Assessing Whether Decisions Are More Sensitive to Preference or Prediction Uncertainty with a Value of Information Approach

Haag, Fridolin; Chennu, Arjun - 2023

In many decisions, we are not only uncertain about the predicted outcomes of decision alternatives but also about … or in standard utility theory. Based on the expected expected utility (EEU) concept, we consider uncertain predictions … environmental decision problems and we apply it to a hypothetical multi-criteria decision regarding coral reef management with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358568

The Predictive Power of Risk Elicitation Tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

-choice tasks for elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997) with the standard …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823266

The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

Hey, John Denis; Pace, Noemi - 2011

Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177352

The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

-choice tasks for elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997) with the standard …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292131

Partially unforeseen events : corrections and correcting formulae for forecasts

Charin, Aleksandr A. - In: Expert journal of economics 2 (2014) 2, pp. 69-79

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407

Should Faustmann forecast climate change?

Gars, Johan; Spiro, Daniel - 2019

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015877

Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices

Wei, Bin - 2021

generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible due to its separation of ambiguity aversion from both risk aversion and … variance premium puzzle besides the puzzles of the equity premium, the risk-free rate, and the return predictability …. Specifically, the model matches reasonably well key asset-pricing moments with risk aversion under 5. Model calibration shows that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667

A comment on the bias of probabilities derived from betting odds and their use in measuring outcome uncertainty

Štrumbelj, Erik - In: Journal of sports economics 17 (2016) 1, pp. 12-26

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422895