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The predictive power of risk elicitation tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292131

The Predictive Power of Risk Elicitation Tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823266

Ambiguity attitudes and surprises : experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample

Minnich, Aljoscha; Roggenkamp, Hauke; Lange, Andreas - 2023

This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on real temperatures over several past days. Second,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431440

The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

Hey, John Denis; Pace, Noemi - 2011

Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177352

A Fundamental Prediction Error : Self-Others Discrepancies in Risk Preference

Hsee, Christopher K.; Weber, Elke U. - 2011

This research examined whether people can accurately predict the risk preferences of others.Three experiments featuring different designs revealed a systematic bias: that participants predicted others to be more risk seeking than themselves in risky choices, regardless of whether the choices...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026773

Cross-National Differences in Risk Preference and Lay Predictions

Hsee, Christopher K.; Weber, Elke U. - 2011

This research explores whether there are systematic cross-national differences in choice-inferred risk preferences between Americans and Chinese. Study 1 found(a) that the Chinese were signi®cantly more risk seeking than the Americans, yet(b) that both nationals predicted exactly the opposite...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026775

Predicting Financial Risk Taking Behavior : A Comparison of Questionnaires

Grable, John - 2019

tested questionnaires represented measures derived from economic and psychometric theory. It was determined that … questionnaires based on economic theory had similar predictive power, implying that both measures provided some degree of reliability … across measures. Only the psychometric theory-based risk tolerance measure was found to be correlated to other indicators of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897998

Short-Term Forecasting of GDP via Evolutionary Algorithms Using Survey-Based Expectations

Claveria, Oscar - 2017

Business and consumer surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. In this study we use survey expectations about a wide range of economic variables to forecast GDP growth. We propose an empirical approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955806

Nowcasting and Forecasting GDP Growth with Machine-Learning Sentiment Indicators

Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - 2021

We apply the two-step machine-learning method proposed by Claveria et al. (2021) to generate country-specific sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates. In the first step, by means of genetic programming, business and consumer expectations are evolved to derive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238396

Exponential or Hyperbolic? Identifying and Testing the Predictive Power of Time Preference Over Unhealthy Behaviours

Tang, Jianjun - 2017

It is crucial to more thoroughly understand discounting behaviour because it has important implications for designing interventions with financial incentives for behavioural change. This means examining discounting functional forms as well as discount rates and establishing their impacts across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968473