and disadvantages of the various output gap measures. First, I examine the usefulness of the output gap for inflation …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … captures widespread developments across the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket and that it is the persistent … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of …

​We apply several tests to the underlying inflation metrics used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the … measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best …

We explore the ability of core inflation to predict headline CPI annual inflation for a sample of 8 developing … sample of developing countries are currently implementing or given steps toward the future implementation of inflation … targeting regimes, which are heavily based on long run inflation forecasts …

uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap, and incorporate a …