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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014 - This version: December 3, 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
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Why Prediction Markets Work : The Role of Information Acquisition and Endogenous Weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2015
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033514
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Information Choice and Utilization in an Experiment on Default Prediction
Abdel-Khalik, A. Rashad - 2014
In this paper, we report the design and results of an experiment in human judgment in which decision makers were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053089
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Can Information Alleviate Overconfidence? A Randomized Experiment on Financial Market Predictions
Ida, Takanori - 2020
In this study, we examine how information provision affects the degree of overconfidence using an online experiment. The 4,210 experimental participants engaged in stock market prediction exercises were asked to evaluate their absolute and relative performance. We conducted a randomized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847379
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Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions
Goodman, Theodore H. - 2014
Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable by external stakeholders. In this study, we investigate whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063410
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False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices
Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22
Facing climate change, seasonal forecasts, and weather warnings are increasingly important to warn the public of the risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857
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Long-Term Information in the Decision to Provide a Short-Term Forecast
Heinle, Mirko Stanislav; Kim, Chongho; Taylor, Daniel J.; … - 2021
Several recent empirical papers assert that the decision to disclose an earnings forecast shortly before the actual … dynamic model of voluntary disclosure, we show that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast reveals managers … decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast predicts earnings three years beyond the forecasted period, and that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245221
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Social Network-Embedded Prediction Markets : The Effects of Information Acquisition and Communication on Predictions
Qiu, Liangfei - 2013
Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this “wisdom of crowds” is a prediction market. The purpose of our social network-embedded prediction market is to suggest that carefully...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073275
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Information (non)aggregation in markets with costly signal acquisition
Corgnet, Brice; Deck, Cary A.; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, … - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 154 (2018), pp. 286-320
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011986843