This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical...

Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of...

Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in cost and time to completion forecasting of projects and programmes. In September 2012, the Development Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region commissioned a...

Based on a review of available data from a database on large-scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated...