We study the rejection of the expectations hypothesis within a New Keynesian business cycle model. Earlier research has shown that the Lucas general equilibrium asset pricing model can account for neither sign nor magnitude of average risk premia in forward prices, and is unable to explain...

The links between real and nominal bond risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics are explored quantitatively in a model with nominal rigidities and monetary policy. The estimated model captures macroeconomic and yield curve properties of the U.S. economy, implying significantly positive real term...

We study the term structure of default-free interest rates in a sticky-price model with an occasionally binding effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on interest rates and recursive preferences. The ELB constraint induces state-dependency in the dynamics of term premiums by affecting...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, theserelationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

Two novel models specify interest rates from factors other than time to demonstrate bond market expectations of riskless rates converge to the natural rate of interest.The first yield curve model is based upon risk rather than time. The riskless rate is the incremental yield for an infinitesimal...

To measure the global spillovers of a Chinese slowdown on the long-term nominal interest rates in the US/Germany, I model the US/German nominal term structure jointly in the post financial crisis (FC) sample, including the Chinese leading indicator as a new factor. I use an affine term structure...

This paper analyzes the effect of the interest rate lower bound on long term sovereign bond spreads in the Euro area. We specify a joint shadow rate term structure model for the risk-free, the German and the Italian sovereign yield curves. In our model, the behavior of long term spreads becomes...

Based on high-frequency data for Norway and Sweden, we investigate to what extent explicit forward guidance from monetary policy makers, by means of publishing the path of expected future policy rates, affects the market yield curve. We summarise movements in the yield curve by two latent...

The links between real and nominal bond risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics are explored analytically and quantitatively in a model with nominal rigidities and monetary policy. The interest-rate policy rule becomes a restriction linking real and nominal risk premia through endogenous...