"This volume collects the Working Papers prepared by William R. Cline and issued by Economics International, Inc., in 2018 through 2021. Chapter 1 argues that US median incomes have grown faster than generally recognized. Chapter 2 provides new estimates of US job losses from the China Shock to...

This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key...

US federal debt held by the public rose from 35 percent of GDP in 2007 to 72 percent in 2015, reflecting the Great Recession as well as rising health and social spending, and then to 79 percent in 2019 following the 2017 tax cuts. In 2020-21 federal assistance to address the COVID-19 shock will...