Equilibrium exchange rate theories (FEER, BEER and NATREX) make the assumption that the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate (RER) is independent from internal equilibrium and economic policies. We develop a model in which economic policies depend on the minimisation of an intertemporal loss function...

Assessing real effective exchange rate equilibrium is a challenging task. There is no consensus in the literature on which methodologies and norms apply best to tackle real effective exchange rate misalignment estimation. The novelty of our paper consists of showing that different methodologies...

Equilibrium exchange rate theories make the assumption that the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate (RER) is independent from internal equilibrium and economic policies. We develop a model in which economic policies depend on the minimisation of an intertemporal loss function, and we show that in a...

The paper's objective is to examine whether the Indian Rupee was fairly valued as of end March 2015. First, the movements of the trade weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Rupee are tracked over the last ten years. Next, the underpinnings of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect,...

Forecasting exchange rates remains a tricky issue for economists. In spite of a theoretical consistent framework, macroeconomic models fail to beat random walk models and market expectations doesn't have any predictive power. This article addresses some problems of exchange rate macroeconomic...

Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes...

This paper compares two approaches for examining the extent to which a country`s actual real effective exchange rate is consistent with economic fundamentals: the FEER approach, which involves calculating the real exchange rate that equates the current account at full employment with sustainable...

In this paper we extend the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) approach which identifies an estimated equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Here the economic fundamentals are decomposed using Johansen cointegration methods into transitory and...

The paper presents an N-country model with stock markets, in which a closed-form solution for the real exchange rate is derived. Risky asset prices and allocation of risky assets among countries are determined endogenously. Such a framework allows an analysis of how fundamental parameters, such...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...