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Geben Konjunkturprognosen eine gute Orientierung?
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 13, pp. 207-213
Die vorliegende Bewertung der Treffgenauigkeit von Prognosen sowie von vorläufigen amtlichen Berechnungen zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland zeigt, dass frühe Prognosen nicht nur sehr ungenau sind, sondern auch systematisch zu optimistisch ausfallen. Die mehr als ein Jahr im...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601977
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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285824
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Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure?: Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068776
Cover Image
Geben Konjunkturprognosen eine gute Orientierung?
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 13, pp. 207-213
Die vorliegende Bewertung der Treffgenauigkeit von Prognosen sowie von vorläufigen amtlichen Berechnungen zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland zeigt, dass frühe Prognosen nicht nur sehr ungenau sind, sondern auch systematisch zu optimistisch ausfallen. Die mehr als ein Jahr im...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005018762
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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731500
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Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) 55 (2009) 4, pp. 269-294
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its useside components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast / revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784854
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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324268