We measure the amount of smoothing achieved through various components of the government deficit in Eu and OECD countries. For EU countries, at the 1-year frequency, 13 % of shocks to GDP are smoothed via government consumption, 18 percent via transfers, 5 % via subsidies, while taxes provide no...

One may reason before making a decision on perceiving potential objections to expected utility-preference. Cognitive consistency is attained by making full use of available information, i.e. consistent preference and reasons. I show that coincidence between the rational choice and the normative...

In this paper, we characterize the asymmetries of the smile through multiple leverage effects in a stochastic dynamic asset pricing framework. The dependence between price movements and future volatility is introduced through a set of latent state variables.

This paper develops necessary and sufficient conditions for monotone comparative statics predictions in several general classes of stochastic optimization problems. There are two main results, where the first pertains to single crossing properties (of marginal returns, incremental returns, and...

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not...

This paper proposes a new approach to modeling volatility changes and clustering, we use a parsimonious high-order markov chain which allows for duration dependence.

In this paper, we apply a collection of parametric (Normal, Normal GARCH, Student GARCH, RiskMetrics and high-frequency duration models) and non-parametric (empirical quantile, extreme distributions models) Value-at-Risk (VaR) techniques to intraday data for three stocks traded on the New York...

We investigate in this paper the attitudes towards risk of bettors in British horse races. The model we use allows us to go beyond the expected utility framework and to explore various alternative proposals by estimating a multinomial model on a 34443-race dataset. We find that rank-dependent...

In this paper we model Value-at-Risk (VaR) for daily stock index returns using a collection of parametric models of the ARCH family based on the skewed Student distribution. We show that models that rely on a symmetric density distribution for the error term underperform with respect to skewed...

This paper presents a useful theoretical and empirical modelling for a probabilistic evaluation of the bank risk states. Bank riskiness is related to a stochastic recursive profit function from which different positions arise. Provided that the bank's decision maker objective is to maximise a...