This paper tests for unbiasedness in inflation expectations drawn from a survey of U.K. employees by Gallup. It focuses on the econometric difficulties presented by having a small sample, there being overlapping forecast horizons, and by trying to make inference when the data appear to be...

This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using 'fixed-event' inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund...

Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the global stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical...