This paper considers estimation and inference for varying-coefficient models with nonstationary regressors. We propose a nonparametric estimation method using penalized splines, which achieves the same optimal convergence rate as kernel-based methods, but enjoys computation advantages. Utilizing...

We provide a method for distinguishing long-range dependence from deterministic trends such as structural breaks. The method is based on the comparison of standard log-periodogram regression estimation of the memory parameter with its tapered counterpart. The difference of these estimators...

The usual t test, the t test based on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimators, and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) test are three statistics that are widely used in applied econometric work. The use of these significance tests...

We show that spline and wavelet series regression estimators for weakly dependent regressors attain the optimal uniform (i.e. sup-norm) convergence rate (n= log n)..p=(2p+d) of Stone (1982), where d is the number of regressors and p is the smoothness of the regression function. The optimal rate...

This paper develops parameter instability and structural change tests within predictive regressions for economic systems governed by persistent vector autoregressive dynamics. Specifically, in a setting where all – or a subset – of the variables may be fractionally integrated and the...

The usual t test, the t test based on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimators, and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) test are three statistics that are widely used in applied econometric work. The use of these significance tests...

This paper proposes a test for linearity against exponential smooth transition models with endogenous right-hand-side variables: to the very best of our knowledge, this class of models is new to the literature. By Monte Carlo analysis the test is shown to have good finite sample properties

Phillips (1986) provides asymptotic theory for regressions that relate nonstationary time series including those integrated of order 1, I(1). A practical implication of related literature on spurious regression is that one cannot trust the usual confidence intervals. Therefore it is recommended...

This paper introduces a representation of an integrated vector time series in which the coefficient of multiple correlation computed from the long-run covariance matrix of the innovation sequences is a primitive parameter of the model. Based on this representation, a notion of near cointegration...

This paper extends previous work in Escribano and Jorda (1997) and introduces new LM specification procedures to choose between Logistic and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Models. These procedures are simpler, consistent and more powerful than those previously available in the...