Kaufmann, Sylvia - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 156 (2020) 1/12, pp. 1-12
The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to extract unexpected changes or shocks to log short-time workers. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate...