Many sophisticated investors rely on scenario analysis to select a portfolio. These investors define prospective economic scenarios, assign probabilities to them, translate the scenarios into expected asset class returns, and select the portfolio with the highest expected return or expected...

It is common practice to forecast social, political, and economic outcomes by polling people about their intentions. This approach is direct, but it can be unreliable in settings where it is hard to identify a representative sample, or where subjects have an incentive to conceal their true...

Investors sometimes have strong convictions that a distinctive economic regime will prevail in the period ahead and therefore would like to form a portfolio that reflects the expected returns, standard deviations, and correlations of assets during such a regime. To do so, they typically isolate...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of macroeconomic conditions and predict the base performance of a firm as represented by Return on Asset (ROA) and macroeconomic variables. The predictor variables used in the construction of the models were selected using PCA. For the full...

Using data for the Ukrainian economy, we applied and adapted the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to examine the association between financial conditions, credit and sectors' activity, and external conditions and the probability distribution of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA...