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Chapter 8 Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models

Teräsvirta, Timo - 2006

building are parameter estimation and evaluation that are also briefly considered. There are two possibilities of generating …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023698

Optimal Bandwidth Choice for Interval Estimation in GMM Regression

Sun, Yixiao - 2008

nonparametric estimation where the focus is the nonparametric quantity itself and the choice rule balances asymptotic variance with … squared asymptotic bias. It turns out that the optimal bandwidth for interval estimation has a different expansion rate and is … typically substantially larger than the optimal bandwidth for point estimation of the standard errors. The new approach to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771849

A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia

Bakalli, Gaetan; Guerrier, Stéphane; Scaillet, Olivier - 2021

We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487589

Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction

Cheng, Tingting; Gao, Jiti; Linton, Oliver - 2018

nonstationary. We also establish the estimation theory and asymptotic properties for these models in the short horizon and long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011775136

Variable selection and forecasting in high dimensional linear regressions with structural breaks

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad - 2020

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258549

An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load

Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; … - 2008

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373810

Exports and capacity constraints : a smooth transition regression model for six euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Oeking, Anne; Setzer, Ralph - 2013

Traditional specifications of export equations incorporate foreign demand as a demand pull factor and the real exchange rate as a relative price variable. However, such standard export equations have failed to explain the export performance of euro area countries during the crisis period. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255111

Exports and capacity constraints : a smooth transition regression model for six euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Oeking, Anne; Setzer, Ralph - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010195462

Uniform inference with general autoregressive processes

Magdalinos, Tassos; Petrova, Petrova - 2025

A unified theory of estimation and inference is developed for an autoregressive process with root in (-∞, ∞) that … regions (-∞, -1) ∪ (1, ∞) are addressed simultaneously. A novel estimation procedure, based on a data-driven combination of a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015396070

Robust inference for diffusion-index forecasts with cross-sectionally dependent data

Kim, Min Seong - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012593573