We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict...

We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict...

Hypothetical bias is a pervasive problem in stated-preference experiments. Recent research has developed two empirically successful calibrations to remove hypothetical bias, though the calibrations have not been tested using the same data or in a conjoint analysis. This study compares the two...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a...

Model selection is often conducted by ranking models by their out-of-sample forecast error. Such criteria only incorporate information about the expected value, whereas models usually describe the entire probability distribution. Hence, researchers may desire a criteria evaluating the...

Using a linear programming model, this study evaluates the effects of commercializing new biotech-soybean varieties on the livestock producersÂ’ feed costs and formulations. Major findings include: (1) development of new alternative soybeans would benefit poultry meat producers more than egg...