Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...

This study instructs an artificial price competition market to examine the impact of capacity constraints on the behavior of packers. Results show when there are cattle left for the lowest bidder after all other packers finishing their procurement, the capacity constraints make the price lower...

Training a neural network is a difficult optimization problem because of numerous local minimums. Many global search algorithms have been used to train neural networks. However, local search algorithms are more efficient with computational resources, and therefore numerous random restarts with a...

Many previous studies provide pricing models of options on futures spreads. However, none of them fully reflect the economic reality that spreads can stay near full carry for long periods of time. We suggest a new option pricing model that assumes that convenience yield follows arithmetic...

While considerable research has estimated liquidity costs of futures trading, little comparable research is available about options markets. This study determines effective bid-ask spreads in options and futures markets for Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat. Effective bid-ask spreads are...

Improved software now makes Bayesian estimation a strong alternative to nonlinear maximum likelihood. Bayesian methods were used to estimate a linear response stochastic plateau for cotton and were shown to provide estimates similar to maximum likelihood. Optimal levels of nitrogen were lower...