This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade for a sample of 149 exporters at the HS6 digit level. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional...

We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity...

Supplier diversification is often adopted to mitigate the negative impact of supply uncertainty and increased tariffs in global supply chains. In this study, we consider a decentralized global supply chain that consists of a domestic buyer, a reliable oversea supplier with a high tariff rate...