How should you choose between risky options? This paper proposes reckoning, defined as the expectation for the lower of two draws from a variable's distribution. In symbols this is E[min(X_1,X_2)]. This is a special case of rank-dependent expected utility and provides a tractable alternative to...

Financial institutions now face the important challenge of having to do multiple portfolio revaluations for their risk computation. The list is almost endless: from XVAs to FRTB, stress testing programs, etc. These computations require from several hundred up to a few million revaluations. The...

Libra was presented as a cryptocurrency on June 18, 2019 by Facebook. On the same day, Facebook announced plans for Calibra, a subsidiary in charge of the development of an electronic wallet and financial services. In view of the primary risk of sovereignty posed by the creation of Libra, the...

This paper investigates the implementation of a government decree, which establishes a legal background for the monopolistic pricing of a state-owned company services on the emerging market of air ambulance services in Russia. Being based on firsthand empirical data the research unveils the...

Scholars have long recognized the difficulties of communicating risk to the public. The rise of mobile gaming presents unprecedented opportunities for risk communicators to reach millions of potential users in engaging and potentially effective ways. Gamifying risk communication may help users...

This paper examines the technological challenges faced by financial institutions in setting up, managing and maintaining an effective Know Your Customer (KYC), Customer Due Diligence (CDD) and Customer Identification Program (CIP); as well as the future of money laundering and terrorist...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on China's banks' credit risks and China's macroeconomic fluctuations. By incorporating the stochastic volatility into the quantity-based monetary policy rule, we provide a specific measure for China's MPU through Bayesian MCMC...

The contribution of this paper is to show how the balance of risk for various macro variables can be linked to inflation uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty is derived from uncertainty in the macro variables that are deemed to be important for future inflation. The paper focuses on the technical...