According to retrospective voting a bad economy hurts the incumbent party and vice versa. According to risk …-aversion voting a bad economy favors the Democrats over the Republicans and vice versa. This paper provides a test of both theories … and rejects risk-aversion voting …

We analyze a psychologically-based model of voter turnout in an election with common value and uncertainty. Our model …

I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in runoff elections under aggregate uncertainty. I … election, and a Condorcet losing candidate wins with positive probability. Finally, some candidates who reach the second round … data from Italian municipal elections …