We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...

We develop a framework to quantify the convenience yield risk (CYR) inherent to each commodity futures market. Implementing our approach, we document that our novel CYR measure is informative about future commodity returns. In panel regressions, the CYR predicts future returns with a positive...

We propose a methodology to measure the parameter estimation risk and model specification risk of pricing models, as well as model selection risk of model classes, based on realized payoffs, for products in the over-the-counter market. Lévy jump models and affine jump-diffusion models are...