Financial markets enable risk sharing and efficient allocation of capital. We characterize how these roles interact in a “feedback effects” model with diversely informed, risk-averse investors and a manager who learns from prices when making an investment decision. While learning from prices...

We build a macroeconomic model for Switzerland, the Euro Area, and the USA that drives the dynamics of several asset classes and the liabilities of a representative Swiss (defined-contribution) pension fund. This encompassing approach allows us to generate correlations between returns on assets...

Recent empirical studies suggest that, during times of unexpected innovation, agents heterogeneously update their beliefs about an asset fundamental value, and they are uncertain about other agents' beliefs on it. In this paper I show that, when there is uncertainty about the market sentiment,...

A multiple agent model is developed where traders must receive, process, and send communications to and from a distant market. This model highlights the importance that information theory's communication constraints have on the level of price uncertainty each agent faces. The collective...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

Sentiment should exhibit its strongest effects on asset prices at times when valuations are most subjective. Consistent with this hypothesis, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase in aggregate uncertainty amplifies the predictive ability of sentiment for market returns by two to four...

Systematic mispricing primarily affects speculative stocks and predominantly results in overpricing, predicting lower average returns. Because speculative stocks overlap with stocks deemed risky by rational models, failing to control for exposure to systematic mispricing can bias tests of...

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which...

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when historically unique events cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which non-repetitive...