How should policymakers respond to uncertainty shocks? To analyze the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks associated with various conventional structural shocks, we develop a New Keynesian model with financial frictions and time-varying volatility, which features a...

The spread between the yields on six-month commercial paper and six-month Treasury bills (the paper-bill spread) has been shown to be a good predictor of macroeconomic variables such as GDP and real income, at least through the mid-1980s. In this working paper, Ferderer, Vogt, and Chahil explore...

This paper shows that monetary policy does and should respond systematically to time variation in ex-ante uncertainty and heterogeneity in private sector's views over the business cycle. Empirical tests are initially conducted on the basis of an augmented forward-looking Taylor rule framework,...

This paper shows that monetary policy does and should respond systematically to time variation in ex-ante uncertainty and heterogeneity in private sector's views over the business cycle. Empirical tests are initially conducted on the basis of an augmented forward-looking Taylor rule framework,...

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...

This paper presents a simulative model of a financial market, based on a fully operating order book with limit and market orders. The heterogeneity of traders is characterized not only with regards to their trading rules, but also by introducing a behavioral individual risk aversion and a...

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

Aligning investments to the climate and sustainability targets requires the introduction of stable climate-aligned policies. In this regard, a global Carbon Tax (CT) and a revision of the microprudential banking framework via a Green Supporting Factor (GSF) have been advocated. However, our...