The effectiveness of the VIX index as a leading indicator of style returns has been examined in the finance literature, finding that increases in this “fear index” lead to outperformance of “value” vs “growth” stocks, although the effect has attenuated over time. This study...

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness and risk in the stock exchange market in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEE) in view of the largest stock exchanges: NYSE2‑LSE‑HKSE2. The implementation of this objective was based on an analysis of basic stock market indicators and...

To avert the impending global Cyber-Finance Insurance Crisis based upon large-scale commercial reliance upon quantitative models with inherent model risks, tail risks, and systemic risks in current form, this post-doctoral thesis makes the following key contributions: Develops the first known...

In this paper we expand the literature of risk neutral density estimation across maturities from implied volatility curves, usually estimated and interpolated through cubic smoothing splines. The risk neutral densities are computed through the second derivative as in Panigirtzoglou and...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

This paper presents a mathematical model to evaluate the risks of arbitration in contractual disputes to decide whether or not to raise an arbitration case for a claim. It adds the ingredient of a regret theory approach for taking that decision, if an amicable settlement amount is not agreed....

Based on the Partial Distribution (Feng Dai, 2001), a new model to price an asset (MPA) is given. Going a step further, this paper puts forward the Multivariate Partial Distribution (MPD) for the first time. By use of MPD, we could gain a new kind of model for pricing the group assets (MPGA), in...

Managed volatility strategies adjust market exposure in inverse relation to a risk estimate, to stabilize realized portfolio volatility through time. Our paper examines strategy performance from an investment practitioner perspective. Using long-term data from the Standard & Poor's 500, we show...

Full paper available at: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=2840730" https://ssrn.com/abstract=2840730This supplementary material to "Which Risk Factors Drive Oil Futures Price Curves?" includes the derivation of the futures price expression, details of the Kalman Filter utilised, and the equation for...