This paper provides a comprehensive examination of whether portfolios formed on capital asset pricing model anomalies capture information related to changes in the investment opportunity set and therefore may be appropriate candidates as state variables within Merton's (1973) ICAPM framework....

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of whether portfolios formed on capital asset pricing model anomalies capture information related to changes in the investment opportunity set and therefore may appropriate candidates as state variables within Merton's (1973) ICAPM framework....

Momentum is a pervasive asset-pricing anomaly that has been shown to exist in a number of markets and asset classes. Three possible explanations for momentum have emerged in the literature; risk, positive autocorrelation and negative cross-serial correlation. Lewellen (2002) adds to this...

We develop an intertemporal asset pricing model where cash flow news, discount rate news, and their second moments are priced by the market. This model generalizes the market return decomposition framework, showing that intertemporal considerations imply a decomposition of squared market returns...

We study the effects of uncertainty on corporate leverage adjustments with respect to investment spikes and find that overlevered and underlevered firms behave very differently in response to the combination of uncertainty and investment spikes. Overlevered firms facing high uncertainty converge...

We show that option-implied jump tail risk estimated prior to earnings announcements strongly predicts post-earnings risk-adjusted abnormal stock returns. The predictive power of implied jump tail risk is particularly strong on extreme abnormal stock returns whose absolute values exceed 10%. The...

We employ a characteristic-based model to decompose total analyst coverage into abnormal and expected components and show that abnormal coverage contains valuable information about individual firm ex-ante crash risk (proxied by implied volatility smirk from options data). Specifically, one...

This paper devises and tests a state-dependent approach to forecasting the downside risk of financial assets. The approach has three merits. First, it proposes downside risk prediction conditional on the state of the real economy to recognize the countercyclical nature of financial risk. Second,...