An extended history of market returns reveals aspects of financial risk that are not evident over short timescales. The most enduring risk measure is variance, which quantifies short-term regularities in return dispersion. An alternative measure, shortfall, quantifies the risk of extreme market...

The authors extended the standard paradigm for portfolio stress testing in two ways. First, they introduced a toolkit that enables investors to envision and administer extreme scenarios. The risk model is integral to the stress test. They demonstrated the substantial impact of using historical...

Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations,...

Main description: Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric...

We discuss a practical and effective extension of portfolio risk management and construction best practices to account for extreme events. The central element of the extension is (expected) shortfall, which is the expected loss given that a value-at-risk limit is breached. Shortfall is the most...