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Most macroeconomic models fail to replicate the level, volatility, and countercyclicality of risk premia which has been …-varying risk of economic disaster. Both asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates respond to this time-varying risk. The model is … prices. An increase in the risk of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, with no current or future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146622
constrained efficient allocation significantly improves between-agent risk sharing, approaching the unconstrained Pareto optimum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313881
measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350458
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on business cycles and risk-free rates dynamics. We … model a general equilibrium productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk mitigation to households … intermediaries' relative size, but may also mitigate the business cycle. Moreover, it makes risk-free rates pro-cyclical. Households …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181470
We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi …-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510760
In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989353
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on the business cycle and risk-free rates dynamics …. We develop a general equilibrium model of a productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk … cycle fluctuations, while providing households with a risk-free asset whose real return is pro-cyclical and possibly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848320
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on the business cycle and risk-free rates dynamics …. We develop a general equilibrium model of a productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk … cycle fluctuations, while providing households with a risk-free asset whose real return is pro-cyclical and possibly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848499
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on business cycles and risk-free rates dynamics. We … model a general equilibrium productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk mitigation to households … intermediaries' relative size, but may also mitigate the business cycle. Moreover, it makes risk-free rates pro-cyclical. Households …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838767
of risk in credit risk modeling can generate better explanations for firm's credit risks in the real world. Based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007663