Macroeconomic models that are based on either the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) or behavioral considerations share a core premise: All future market outcomes can be characterized ex ante with a single overarching probability distribution. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of...

Macroeconomic models that are based on either the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) or behavioral considerations share a core premise: all future market outcomes can be characterized ex ante with a single overarching probability distribution. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of...

This paper examines the stability of the Bilson-Fama regression for a panel of 55 developed and developing countries. We find multiple break points for nearly every country in our panel. Subperiod estimates of the slope coefficient show a negative bias during some time periods and a positive...