Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

1. The challenge of understanding choice under risk -- 2. Historical review of research through 1960 -- 3. Measuring individual risk preferences -- 4. Aggregate-level evidence from the field -- 5. What are risk preferences? -- 6. Risky opportunities -- 7. Possible ways forward.