This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidence - based on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six Asian countries in the period January 1995-May 2001 - confirming the theoretical...

This paper reconsiders a central bank's problem of determining rules for information dissemination and risk taking behavior that minimize the probability of currency crises. In a global games approach, we find that optimal transparency is adversely related to prior market beliefs. In countries...

It is a robust finding that technical trading rules applied to foreign exchange markets have earned substantial excess returns over long periods of time. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory, and has tended to focus on the CAPM. We examine the returns to a...

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the currency carry return and volatility and liquidity risk factors. We find that both categories of risk factors are relevant to understanding and explaining carry return, with an outperformance for volatility ones especially the global FX...

In this paper, we measure currency carry trade funding risk using stock market volatility and crash risk in Japan, the main funding currency country. We show that the measures of funding risk in Japan can explain 42% of the monthly currency carry trade returns during our sample period,...

We propose an easy-to-implement conditional currency carry trade (CT) strategy that excludes regimes for which UIP is likely to hold, namely when interest rate differentials (IRDs) are very large during high foreign exchange (FX) volatility regimes. We find that conditioning a CT strategy on...

We develop a novel method to dynamically hedge foreign exchange exposure in international equity and bond portfolios. The method exploits the time-series predictability of currency returns, which we show emerges from exploiting a forecastable component in global factor returns. The hedging...

Risk profiles of individual assets vary with speculative positioning. hedge fund positions in currency futures strongly predict currency betas: currencies in which speculators hold long positions comove more positively with equity markets. The link emerges after the global financial crisis, when...

This paper addresses the question of optimal currency exposure for a risk-and-ambiguity-avers international investor. A robust mean-variance model with smooth ambiguity preferences is used to derive the optimal currency exposure. In the theoretical part, we show that the sample-efficient...

This paper studies the impact of political risk on exchange rates. We focus on the Brexit Referendum as it provides a natural experiment where both exchange rate expectations and a time-varying political risk factor can be measured directly. We build a simple portfolio model which predicts that...