Regardless of whether the CAPM is rejected for valid reasons or by mistake, a single long-short portfolio will always explain, together with the market, 100% of the cross- sectional variation in returns. Yet, this portfolio, which we coin the “Low-Minus-High (LMH) portfolio,” need not proxy...

This paper studies the impact of information processing and rational learning about economic fundamentals on the level and timing of risk premium in the cross-section of firms. Learning helps explain the level of the value premium, and why the term structure of risk premium is increasing for...

Equilibrium asset-pricing models with time-varying expected economic growth have been criticized for their apparent inability to generate an upward-sloping yield curve and downward-sloping term structures of equity risk and risk premium. We theoretically investigate the model-implied equilibrium...

Persistence risk is an endogenous source of risk that arises when a rational agent learns about the length of business cycles. Persistence risk is positive during recessions and negative during expansions. This asymmetry, which solely results from learning about persistence, causes expected...

We study an economy with incomplete information in which two agents are uncertain and disagree about the length of business cycles. That is, the agents do not question whether the economy is growing or not, but instead continuously estimate how long economic cycles will last — i.e., they learn...

The term structure of equity risk has been shown to be downward sloping. We capture this feature using return dynamics driven by both a transitory and a permanent component. We study the asset allocation and portfolio performance when transitory and permanent components cannot be observed and...