This paper examines the impact of global supply chain disruptions and the associated uncertainty on economic activity and inflation. We employ a Bayesian VAR model with the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) and estimated uncertainty to analyze their effects during the pandemic. Our...

Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...

Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at...