Estimated expected returns are important for pension plans, as they influence many plan characteristics including required asset levels, annual contributions, and the extent of plan under- or over funding. Yet, there seems to be little prior literature on the factors influencing these estimated...

We study optimal fiscal policy in a standard incomplete-markets model with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk, where a Ramsey planner chooses time-varying paths of proportional capital and labor income taxes, lump-sum transfers (or taxes), and government debt. We find that: (1) short-run...

This paper studies fiscal policy design in an economy in which (i) the representative household has recursive preferences, and (ii) growth is endogenously sustained through innovations whose market value depends on the tax system. By reallocating tax distortions through debt, fiscal policy...

This paper describes the infinite-horizon general equilibrium model that, among other models, CBO uses for its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. Agents in the model live forever and face uninsurable, individual-specific working-ability shocks and borrowing constraints, and so they...

We model the optimal reaction of a public PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex-ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules that mimic the pension systems observed in the real world. The...

I construct a unified macroeconomic framework by incorporating frictional markets in a neoclassical environment. This framework is analytically tractable despite search frictions, income risks and endogenous money distributions. I use this framework to formalize a theory that the variety and the...

Purpose: This paper provides an important contribution towards the development of a valid, reliable and cost-effective instrument that reduces operational and economic risk levels in public sector organizations. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative methodology based on the collection of...

We model the optimal reaction of a public PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex-ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules that mimic the pension systems observed in the real world. The...