Catastrophic risk is currently a hotly debated topic. This paper contributes to this debate by showing two results. First it shown that the value function in dynamic optimization can have an infinite derivative at some point even if the model specification has functional forms that are finite...

This paper offers a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to policy evaluation in rational expectation models. First, we show how to correctly assess and rank simple policy rules under the welfare loss minimization criterion in the presence of uncertainty about the model’s structural...

In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currenciespegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers havefocused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses onthe impact on supply. We show that risk premium...

The COVID-19 pandemic represented a logical Catch 22 scenario in the world of financial economics. The pandemic saw a sudden and unanticipated plunge in Money Velocity, Consumer Confidence, Employment and industrial output. At the same time, due to fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in form...

This paper examines how the presence of uncertainty alters allocations and prices when the nominal interest rate is constrained by the zero lower bound. I conduct the analysis using a standard New Keynesian model in which the nominal interest rate is determined according to a truncated Taylor...

Despite the recent increasing number of studies on monetary policy uncertainty, its role on the strategic interactions between fiscal and monetary policies has not been fully explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap by tackling this issue by evaluating the consequences produced by...

Part I: Sources of uncertainty, risk, and imprecision -- Sources of Uncertainty in Location Analysis -- Risk, hazard and exposure time in Hazmat Location and Routing -- Customer related uncertainties in Facility Location Problems -- Part II: Models that protect against acts of nature, attackers,...

We model policy reform as a way to affect the stochastic process of relative returns that firms face when switching from old to new activities. This stochastic process has an Ito process component that is noncontrollable and policy reforms result in jumps in relative returns that arrive...

A noteworthy characteristic of empirical studies on the economic uncertainty index is that very few published papers depend on normative analysis. Therefore, normative analysis cannot be used to refute the precision of the economic uncertainty index; the lack of precision is simply the outcome...

This paper studies the design of optimal time-consistent monetary policy in an economy where the planner trusts its own model, while a representative household uses a set of alternative probability distributions governing the evolution of the exogenous state of the economy. In such environments,...