We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We also show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher...

This report replicates and examines Bauer et al.'s (2021) paper on monetary policy transmission to financial markets. The paper introduces novel measures of monetary policy uncertainty and analyses its drivers. It also investigates the impact of uncertainty changes on interest rates and...

Bauer et al. (2022) derive market-based monetary policy uncertainty and uncover an 'FOMC uncertainty cycle' characterized by a fall of uncertainty after FOMC announcements and its subsequent built-up. Then, the authors show that the financial markets' response to monetary policy announcements...

We document that the cross-sectional dispersion of conditional FX correlation is countercyclical and that currencies that perform badly (well) during periods of high dispersion yield high (low) average excess returns. We also find a negative cross-sectional association between average FX...

We test the role of funding-constrained investors across developed financial markets. We compile direct measures of the severity of funding frictions, or illiquidity, from deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve. Using these illiquidity measures, we first show that higher...

An extensive literature studies the impact of monetary policy surprises---shifts in expected policy rates---on asset prices. This paper addresses the open question of how shifts in the uncertainty about future policy rates matter for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. To...

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC...