This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroeconomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and...

Although the economic boom in Germany is over, a recession is not looming. The economy is still expected to grow by 1.0 percent this year despite its recent weaker performance. Consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; the average annual increase in the number of employees is likely to be...

The world economy continues on its upward growth path, with global production expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year and slightly more than that in 2018. The economies in both the developed and the emerging countries are gaining momentum. Solid output growth is expected for the U.S. and euro...

This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much...

This study develops a new economic uncertainty (EU) index based on Chinese newspapers by addressing the media coverage bias of existing measures. The developed index refines the existing methods on measuring uncertainty by taking special characteristics of China into consideration, which turns...

I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is associated with a 4.29 percentage points increase...

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19...

This study constructs the macroeconomic uncertainty indices for an emerging economy, India, and considers other macroeconomic uncertainty indices to evaluate their relative effectiveness in terms of tracing the business cycles and finding out the transmission channels consistent with theory. The...

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...

Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques...