We evaluate whether machine learning methods can better model excess portfolio returns compared to the standard regression-based strategies generally used in the finance and econometric literature. We examine 17 benchmark factor model specifications based on Expected Utility Theory and theory...

Based on a novel high-frequency data set for a large number of firms, I estimate the time-varying latent continuous and jump factors that explain individual stock returns. The factors are estimated using principal component analysis applied to a local volatility and jump covariance matrix. I...

Variable annuities (VAs) are highly popular personal savings and investment products with long-term financial guarantees. The hedging of these guarantees is crucial for VA providers, but is complicated by basis risk, i.e. the discrepancy in returns between the underlying mutual fund and suitable...

Bankruptcy and delisting due to other failures are two closely related yet sharply different distress events. Using a state-of-the-art adaptive Lasso variable selection method, we identify two different models for bankruptcy risk and other-failure risk. Both selected models gain better...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current quarterly nowcasts of the gross domestic product in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a...

A geopolitical incident in the Taiwan Strait would pose two immediate risks to the US economy: (a) potential disruptions to digital flows from vulnerable submarine cables with landing stations in Taiwan and (b) the delay or disruption of container shipments in the Taiwan Strait and nearby waters...

We propose a new framework for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large VAR model with errors whose stochastic volatility is driven by two common unobservable factors, representing aggregate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures can also...

We propose a new framework for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large VAR model with errors whose stochastic volatility is driven by two common unobservable factors, representing aggregate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures can also...

This document contains supplementary material to the paper "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability". In part A we examine the ability of our models to generate economic value in a stylized asset portfolio management setting. We describe the criteria for such evaluation and...

Uncertainty about the current state and near-term outlook of an economy as well as the likely course of future policy actions can prompt economic agents to alter their decisions to spend, save, invest and hire. In this paper, we construct three alternative indices to measure the level of...