We study how uncertainty propagates through production networks. First, we construct a highly disaggregated, forward-looking measure of industry-level uncertainty using option-implied volatility data for U.S. firms. Second, we identify the effects of higher uncertainty within industries, across...

We develop a dynamic macroeconomic model in which the secular decline in real interest rates arises endogenously from rising wealth inequality. Challenging the standard "safe asset shortage" hypothesis, the model shows how falling real rates can coexist with a stable safe asset ratio--closely...

Legal claims are increasingly being considered as an alternative asset class, however, there appears to be a lack of a standard methodology for valuing litigation risk. This paper proposes a dynamic real options framework for the valuation of legal claims, explicitly incorporating the...

We estimate the return of climate adaptation by modeling the uncertain impact of global warming for extreme weather. Unexpected arrivals elevate extreme-weather risk, which leads households and firms to adapt and thereby lowering the damage of each subsequent arrival. Our approach provides...

This chapter studies how incomplete information helps accommodate frictions in coordination, leading to novel insights on the joint determination of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We review and synthesize recent work on global games, beauty contests, and their applications. We...

1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income...

Higher-beta and higher-volatility equities do not earn commensurately higher returns, a pattern known as the risk anomaly. In this paper, we consider the possibility that the risk anomaly represents mispricing and develop its implications for corporate leverage. The risk anomaly generates a...

The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...

When faced with financial uncertainty, rational agents have incentives to take steps ex ante to reduce the probability (self-protection) or size (self-insurance) of a loss. However, in the case of liability risk, especially physician responses to malpractice risk, most empirical analyses have...

In Merton (1987), idiosyncratic risk is priced in equilibrium as a consequence of incomplete diversification. We modify this model to allow the degree of diversification to vary with average idiosyncratic volatility. This simple recognition results in a state-dependent idiosyncratic risk premium...