What is risk? -- Why do we care about risk? -- What do we think about risk? -- How do we measure risk? -- Risk adjusted value -- Probabilistic approaches: Scenario analysis, decision trees and simulations -- Value at risk (VAR) -- Real options -- Risk management: the big picture -- Risk...

In valuation practice, it is common to use point estimates for input variables to arrive at a point estimate of value. This practice has its roots in the twentieth century, where data was difficult or expensive to access, and practitioners had weak tools. As data becomes more accessible and...

Investors have to be offered risk premiums to invest in risky assets. These risk premiums take different forms in different asset markets: equity risk premiums (ERP) in stock markets, default spreads in bond markets and real asset premiums in other asset markets. These premiums have their roots...

Uncertainty is a fact of life in business and investing, but the responses that analysts and investors have to uncertainty is often unhealthy, ranging from denial and paralysis, at one extreme, to rules of thumb that have no basis in common sense, at the other. In this paper, we look at how...

Uncertainty is a fact of life in business and investing, but the responses that analysts and investors have to uncertainty is often unhealthy, ranging from denial and paralysis, at one extreme, to rules of thumb that have no basis in common sense, at the other. In this paper, we look at how...