With the recent debt crisis, the necessity of effective measures for safeguarding fiscal sustainability has become patent, leading to an intense debate. Most of the debate focuses on strengthening fiscal rules and restoring fiscal imbalances through austerity measures. In this paper, I address...

The article addresses the issue of fiscal policy risks in countries with an abundance of natural resources, including Russia. It is demonstrated which consequences Russia's federal budget may be faced with as a result of declining oil prices. In the context of phenomena typical of...

This paper assesses the impact of budgetary uncertainty on the optimum instrument for fiscal discipline. In addition to exogenous uncertainty, with respect to both the savings and damages of the public deficit, the model accommodates for externalities as a result of a multitier government...

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth in the presence of fiscal consolidation in South Africa. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDR) and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) were performed using time series data from 1994 to...

Based on five case studies, this paper looks at the definition and classification of fiscal risks; sets out the components of a comprehensive fiscal risks framework; and examines how to operationalise such a framework. It then summarises challenges and key lessons to be considered by countries...

Japan is in the midst of a protracted spell of depressed economic activity. Japan's economic stagnation has occurred against a background of rising earnings risk. Occupational stability is falling as routine occupations disappear and implicit lifetime employment guarantees are gradually...

This paper focuses on the relationship between political instability, policy-making and macroeconomic outcomes. The theoretical section explores various models that explain the effect of instability (and political uncertainty) on growth, budget formation, inflation and monetary policy. The...

We examine the effect of uncertainty shocks on the level of fiscal guidance – the guidance issued by governments on the expected evolution of the fiscal and economic outlook. Because uncertainty makes governments’ expectations less precise but potentially more valuable to users, we...

This paper investigates optimal tax policy when economic conditions are uncertain, creating risk in tax revenues. Optimal taxation with uncertainty balances costs from volatility and deadweight loss. Tax policy affects volatility through two channels; spreading risk between public and private...