Full paper available at: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=2840730" https://ssrn.com/abstract=2840730This supplementary material to "Which Risk Factors Drive Oil Futures Price Curves?" includes the derivation of the futures price expression, details of the Kalman Filter utilised, and the equation for...

Supplementary material available at: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3312707" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3312707We develop extensions that introduce regression structure to the multi-factor stochastic models of commodity futures price term structure dynamics. We demonstrate the accuracy with which...

This article presents a guided introduction to a general class of interacting particle methods and explains throughout how such methods may be adapted to solve general classes of inference problems encountered in actuarial science and risk management. Along the way, the resulting specialized...

Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of extreme loss...

This white paper presents analysis of Advisen Cyber Loss dataset (www.advisenltd.com/data/cyber-loss-data/) containing a historical view of cyber events, collected from reliable and publicly verifiable sources. The dataset analyzed in this study comprehends 132,126 cyber events during 2008-2020,...

We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an...

We focus on model risk and risk sensitivity when addressing the insurability of cyber risk. The standard statistical approaches to assessment of insurability and potential mispricing are enhanced in several aspects involving consideration of model risk. Model risk can arise from model...

The main objective of this work is to develop a detailed step-by-step guide to the development and application of a new class of efficient Monte Carlo methods to solve practically important problems faced by insurers under the new solvency regulations. In particular, a novel Monte Carlo method...

We revisit the gamma-gamma Bayesian chain-ladder (BCL) model for claims reserving in non-life insurance. This claims reserving model is usually used in an empirical Bayesian way using plug-in estimates for variance parameters, because this empirical Bayesian framework allows us for closed form...