Firstly, we show that domestic prices of net importer countries incorporate a risk premium, driven by higher moments of future nominal exchange rate returns and secondly, using US dollar exchange rates against three currencies of major net exporting countries to the US such as Canada, Japan and...

The paper analyzes the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly in a multi-country model with complete markets under various preference specifications: (i) standard time-additive preferences; (ii) recursive preferences of Epstein and Zin; and (iii) habit formation preferences of Campbell and...

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI...

The financial press linked Trump‘s political rhetoric to the depreciation of the Mexican peso. The massive trade volume of the peso/dollar currency pair obliges to investigate whether Trump‘s presidential campaign and regime, through uncertainty, cause fluctuations in the currency pair. This...

How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...

We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price...

In light of the recent discussion regarding the measurement of uncertainty and its impact on economic activity, this paper derives forward-looking measures of uncertainty and directional expectations for the CHF/EUR exchange rate based on over-the-counter option data and analyses its impact on...

Mit Hilfe von generalisierten Varianzdekompositionen aus Vektorautoregressionen untersuchen wir länder- und kategorieübergreifende Unsicherheits-Spillover-Effekte zwischen den USA und Japan. Dabei betrachten wir sowohl wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit (WPU) als auch Finanzmarktvolatilität....