The risk neutral measure is identified as a symmetric location-scale family of distribution in the local regime of the λ model. A partial differential equation is derived as the transformation between the implied volatility surface and such risk neutral probability. Given a well-interpolated...

We derive a closed-form expansion of option prices in terms of Black-Scholes prices and higher-order Greeks. We show how the true price of an option less its Black-Scholes price is given by a series of premiums on higher-order risks that are not priced under the Black-Scholes model assumptions....

Observing first that the daily option surface may be summarized by the level of the spot price and the four parameters of the Sato process based on the variance gamma process, a time series is constructed for this five dimensional set of factors driving the surface of S&P 500 index option...

The forward-looking nature of option market data allows one to derive economically-based and model-free risk measures. This article proposes an extensive analysis of the performances of option-implied VaR and CVaR, and compare them with classical risk measures for the S&P500 Index. Delivering...

This paper proposes a novel way of pricing S&P500 index options in the presence of jump risk. Our analysis is built upon an equilibrium option pricing rule for a representative agent economy. In particular, we use the weighted utility's certainty equivalent to specify agent's risk preference,...

To analyze the economic significance of pricing errors of stock index options, a system of linear inequalities is developed which completely characterizes all risk arbitrage opportunities which arise if a well-behaved pricing kernel does not exist. The Stochastic Arbitrage system can account for...

This paper examines the time series economic determinants of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index option-implied risk-neutral distributions for the period 1998–2007. In particular, we investigate the effects of a market default likelihood index, which is computed by aggregating daily default risk...

We propose a novel factor model for option returns. Option exposures are estimated nonparametrically and factor risk premia can vary nonlinearly with states. The model is estimated using regressions, with minimal assumptions on factor and option return dynamics. Using index options, we...

We propose a method for constructing an arbitrage-free multi-asset pricing model which is consistent with a set of observed single- and multi-asset derivative prices. The pricing model is constructed as a random mixture of N reference models, where the distribution of mixture weights is obtained...