Uncertainty may affect economic behavior of individuals and firms in a wide variety of ways, with typically negative consequences for economic growth. It is due to this fact, combined with rising political uncertainty observed lately in many countries, that uncertainty has gained increasing...

This paper derives ex-ante (co)variances of stock-level and portfolio-level risk premium predictions from neural networks (NNs). Based on the precision of risk premium forecasts, I provide improved investment strategies. The confident high-low strategies that take long-short positions...

Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...