The aim of this study is to show how Arab-Muslim societies, from Indonesia to Andalusia, did not wait for the modern era in order to learn how to live with risk. Rather, they developed codes of conduct, modes of thinking and moral values. At first sight, the main issue of the notion of risk that...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on China's banks' credit risks and China's macroeconomic fluctuations. By incorporating the stochastic volatility into the quantity-based monetary policy rule, we provide a specific measure for China's MPU through Bayesian MCMC...

The contribution of this paper is to show how the balance of risk for various macro variables can be linked to inflation uncertainty. Inflation uncertainty is derived from uncertainty in the macro variables that are deemed to be important for future inflation. The paper focuses on the technical...

Large banks assess their regulatory capital for market risk using complex, firm-wide Value-at-Risk (VaR) models. In their 'bottom-up' approach to VaR there are many sources of model risk. A recent amendment to banking regulations requires additional market risk capital to cover all these model...

Many important statistics in macroeconomics and finance — such as cross-sectional dispersions, risk, volatility, or uncertainty — are second moments. In this paper, we explore a mechanism by which second moments naturally and endogenously fluctuate over time as nonlinear transformations of...

Increasing interconnectedness of global economies has consistently generated a lot of interests among empirical macro-economists in their quest to properly understand the channels of international spillover and macroeconomic shocks and how such crises when they arise, are managed by Small Open...

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the Bayesian methodology has significant advantages. Just...

Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...