We examine empirically the impact of scheduled USDA information releases on uncertainty and sentiment in grains and oil-seeds markets. We document that, for up to five trading days after the release of a scheduled USDA report (WASDE, stocks, prospective plantings, and acreage), agricultural...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty — but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty, but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

We investigate forward-looking commodity price volatility expectations (proxied by option-implied volatilities or IVols) around scheduled US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports. We show that corn and soybean IVols are significantly lower for several trading days after a report. The IVol...