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volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that …, revealing flight to safety: expected returns increase for stocks when volatility increases from moderate to high levels, while … risk is a nonlinear function of market volatility …
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We study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. This...
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We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
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