We study the effects on financial markets and real economic activity of changes in risk related to political events and policy announcements in Italy during the 2013-2019 period that saw the rise to power of populist parties. We focus on events that have implications for budgetary policy, debt...

In this paper we realize an early warning system for hedge funds based on specific red flags that help to detect symptoms of impending extreme negative returns and contagion effect. To do this we rely on regression trees analysis identifying a series of splitting rules which act as risk signals....

Using a Bayesian time‐varying beta model, we explore how the systematic risk exposures of hedge funds vary over time conditional on some exogenous variables that managers are assumed to use in changing their trading strategies. In such a setting, we impose a structure on fund returns, betas...

In this paper we develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework to compute the Credit Expected Shortfall in an explit if form through Kumaraswamy (1980) distribution with both default rate and recovery rate time-varying. The default rate is assumed to follow a square root process, and...